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AWS Truepower, LLC today released their quarterly analytical Wind Trends Bulletins. Each report independently reviews wind resource performance in North America, Europe, and India based on AWS Truepower’s long-term simulated wind resource data set.
Highlights of the findings include:
“Wind resource is a key consideration in long-term energy assessment. Project developers, owners and investors need to consider the long term as well as annual deviations when setting expectations for project portfolio performance,” said Michael Brower, Chief Technical Officer at AWS Truepower.
“Annual deviations in wind resource are to be expected, and a strategy to mitigate the risk of major portfolio underperformance is essential to hedging against the annual variability of wind,” said Brower. “When assessing a portfolio of projects for development, investment or acquisition, it is essential to have a holistic view of the portfolio to ensure quarterly cash flow is reliable.”
AWS Truepower assesses portfolios of pre- and post-construction assets that take into consideration long-term and annual fluctuations in wind resource to gauge portfolio risk. Its Wind Trends Bulletin provides wind plant owners, investors and operators with a high-level analysis of wind resource performance influenced by climatic fluctuations. This aids in identifying potential issues with plant underperformance.
Download each regional report online:
Click here to download the official press release.
Bruce Bailey, President and CEO, will be presenting Renewable Permitting and Siting Issues: Their Affect on Finance.
AWS Truepower & Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Collaborate on DOE Project for Improved Wind Power Generation Forecasts
Media coverage includes:
R & D Magazine
Renewable Energy World
Wind Builder Magazine
Alternative Energy Magazine
Wednesday, December 14th
Michael Brower, Chief Technical Officer, will serve as Session Chair during the session titled: Uncertainty and Risk in Resource Assessment: An Overview
Steve Hatlee, Assistant Director of Wind Developer Services, will speak during the session titled: Minimizing Measurement Uncertainty
Jeff Freedman, Lead Research Scientist, will speak during the session titled: Referencing Results to the Long-Term
Thursday, December 15th
Dan Bernadett, Chief Engineer, will speak during the session titled: Correcting from the Ideal – Loss Factors 2
AWS Truepower, LLC in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), today released important findings from a multi-phase wind forecasting research project known as WindSENSE. The project, funded by the United States Department of Energy’s Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy program, was designed to develop an observation deployment system and improve wind power generation forecasts.
AWS Truepower’s primary role in the WindSENSE forecasting project was to identify the locations and sensor types required to improve short-term and extreme-event forecasts. The team used an Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) approach to identify specific locations and variables. The study resulted in important forecasting tools which alert control room operators of wind conditions and energy forecasts during extreme conditions called ramp events.
Ramp events occur when sharp increases or decreases in wind speed occur over a short period of time, leading to a large rise or fall in the amount of power generated. During certain weather regimes, currently unexpected ramp events, whose precursors are often not adequately sensed by existing observing systems, can frequently be anticipated an hour or more in advance with a few specific weather variable measurements from key locations. The use of ESA, along with an analysis of a sample of ramp cases, can provide guidance on where and what to measure to improve the prediction of these events.
“We’re trying to forecast wind energy at any given time,” said Chandrika Kamath, the LLNL lead on the project.”One of our goals is to help the people in the control room at the utilities determine when ramp events may occur and how that will affect the power generation from a particular wind farm.”
It is critical that wind forecasts be accurate, especially during ramp events, when the energy can change by more than 1000 MW within an hour. Accurate alerting systems are in high demand as the percentage of wind energy contributing to the power grid continues to increase and the variable nature of wind challenges grid managers and utilities to maintain generation and load balance.
“The observation targeting research conducted as part of the WindSENSE project resulted in the development and testing of algorithms that provide guidance on what weather variables to measure and where to measure them in order to improve wind forecast performance,” stated John Zack, Director of Forecasting of AWS Truepower.”These new software tools have the potential to help forecast providers and users make informed decisions and maximize their weather sensor deployment investment.”
WindSENSE research suggests that assimilation of an observation at the target location would improve the initial value of 80-m wind speed, but the forecast was only improved for one hour. The combination of observations at more than one location suggested an improvement in the forecast for a few hours. There also were seasonal differences and improved forecasts with the introduction of one or more sodar units.
The full report is available for download on AWS Truepower’s website:
To download the official press release, click here.
AWS Truepower, LLC, today released openWind® Enterprise 1.3 which further refines the wind farm design process with improved loss and uncertainty estimates. In addition to the ability to optimize for cost of energy and assess deep array impacts, current Enterprise users will receive Time-Series Energy Capture and Effective Turbulence Intensity upgrades, along with a pilot of Time-Scheduling of Turbines. These features are designed to help developers save time and meet the requirements of utilities and turbine manufacturers.
“With these latest additions we have listened to what our users are telling us. This is just the first stage of an ongoing rollout of new features aimed at addressing the real needs of wind-farm design,” said Nick Robinson, Director of openWind. “This new release will empower our clients with innovative tools to gain more insight in the design phase of their wind farm.”
Key features of openWind Enterprise 1.3 include:
• Effective Turbulence Intensity: Provides a measure of the fatigue loading on each turbine due to ambient and wake-induced turbulence. Users can calculate effective turbulence values according to the latest amendment to IEC614000-1 (ed. 3), and specify how wakes are modeled.
• Times-Series Energy Capture: Allows users to assess diurnal and seasonal impacts of turbulence intensity and air density as well as temperature variance shutdown losses. By inserting the time-element back into the energy capture analysis, users can more easily see the effects of summer and winter differences as well as different daytime and nighttime stability regimes.
• Time-Scheduling of Turbines: Allows users to switch off individual turbines by time of day or year and switch individual turbines to a different power curve. This is particularly useful when attempting to quantify the impact of grid curtailment; switching to low noise power curves at night in order to meet local regulations; or switching off a turbine for specific times of day during those days of the year for which shadow flicker may be a problem.
“In my view, openWind Enterprise is already the most flexible and powerful tool for turbine layout design and energy capture available today. The addition of Time-Series Energy Capture, in particular, will improve our modeling accuracy and also save us valuable time,” said Erik Hale, Wind Assessment Manager, enXco.
openWind Enterprise software is a wind farm design and optimization software based on the open source version of openWind. Currently there are over 3,500 users of the free community version of openWind. openWind Enterprise was developed for wind developers who need more powerful features – an industry-leading geographical information systems (GIS) interface, the ability to optimize for cost of energy, assess deep array impacts, define and analyze strategies for managed shut-down of turbines.
AWS Truepower is previewing version 1.3 of openWind Enterprise at the AWEA Wind Resource & Project Energy Assessment Seminar in Seattle, WA, December 14-15, 2011. For more information, about this product and the release visit http://www.awstruepower.com/openwind_ad1211/.
To view the official press release, click here.
AWS Truepower is the cover story for December issue of North American Windpower. “Methods Advance, But Forecasting Challenges Remain” was co-written by Ken Pennock and John Zack.
Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for the Mid-Columbia Basin