With solar photovoltaic (PV) projects, a major area of risk is quantifying the expected annual energy production and uncertainty. One of the most significant drivers is the uncertainty in solar irradiance data.
With more financial stakeholders becoming aware of the risks of using modeled data alone to estimate energy and project cash flows, the collection of on‐site measurements is coming to the forefront as a critical area for project planning and evaluated in project due diligence.
To demonstrate how solar irradiance data affects uncertainty in energy production estimates, a case study was conducted for 11 sites in the U.S. to show how energy estimates using only modeled data compared to those derived from on‐site measured data correlated to a long‐term reference.