Solutions: Forecasting and Grid Integration
 

The challenge of successfully integrating large quantities of renewable energy into the power grid has been a key focus area at AWS Truepower (AWST) for over two decades. With AWST’s forecasting and grid management services, the risk and uncertainty of integrating wind and solar energy is greatly reduced. We have conducted numerous grid integration studies domestically and abroad, and our user-friendly forecasts are accurate and based on years of experience, research, and independent validation.

AWST has the experience and resources to meet the challenge of integrating large scale renewables.

Understanding the impact of integrating large-scale renewables into the electric grid is essential to the success of our industry. AWS Truepower (AWST) has played a key role in numerous grid integration studies for both domestic and international stakeholders, including the recent NREL-led Eastern Wind Integration Study. (Download Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study, 2010.)

As a leading provider of high-resolution data, AWST is frequently tapped to support the site selection, resource, and energy calculation phases of grid integration studies. The typical approach includes our proprietary, GIS-based site-screening program that is used to identify potential development sites within a specified geographic region.  Upon identification of sites, we employ a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to generate resource datasets that capture both the temporal and spatial variability of the resource and associated power generation. The power output data are then entered into our advanced forecasting system to generate day-, hour-, and minute-ahead forecasts.

Our accurate forecasts ensure maximum productivity and safety at your construction site, as well as reduce the costs associated with crane lifts. There are no long-term contract obligations and AWS Truepower provides convenient delivery formats.

Sudden increases or decreases in wind speed, commonly known as ramp events, have dramatic affects on wind farm production. AWST’s unique ramp event forecasts employ our suite of national weather prediction National Weather Predication models and site data resulting in accurate, timely prediction of wind events.

Proven, Accurate, Valuable

AWS Truepower (AWST) provides highly reliable forecasts of wind speed, wind direction, solar irradiance, stream flow levels, and wind/solar/hydro plant power generation. These forecasts are integral to plant operators, power marketers, utilities, Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs).

The ability to predict the output of renewable energy projects minutes, or even days, in advance can provide significant cost savings for utility system operations. Depending on the client and power market, AWST’s forecasting services can greatly reduce imbalance charges, minimize incremental reserve costs, facilitate plant dispatch scheduling, inform spot-market trading, and optimize plant maintenance.

Various studies have shown that the benefits outweigh the costs of employing a forecasting service by a factor of one hundred to one. This increased value translates into greater market acceptance and higher profits for plant developers, and lower integration costs for utilities and ISOs.

The Service

Wind Power Forecasting  |  Solar Power Forecasting  |  Hydro Power Forecasting

AWST employs sophisticated physics-based atmospheric models and adaptive statistical techniques that are uniquely customized for each client to produce the most accurate forecasts possible. The system predicts the wind speed and direction at a wind project site, solar irradiance for solar projects, stream flow for hydro project, and can then convert those predictions into plant output. Data collected from the site provides continual feedback to maintain optimal accuracy at all times. Forecasts are generated and delivered across the globe from AWST’s secure forecasting operations center.

Delivery

AWST’s forecasts are delivered securely and automatically through our interactive online database, web services (xml), FTP, or e-mail, and can be updated on a customized schedule to meet your needs. Forecasts can be provided from several minutes to several days, or even weeks in advance. Our web interface presents all the information the user needs in a clear and simple format. With a click of the mouse, our customers can access tabular or graphical forecasts as well as examine the recent record of forecast accuracy. AWST can also provide regular written reports of forecast performance.

The AWS Truepower Difference

AWST has an extensive forecasting research program that continuously advances state-of-the-art power forecasting techniques.  Advancements that prove beneficial to the forecasting service are immediately implemented in our operational forecasting services.  Research is the core strength behind our forecasting services, but our success originates from our goal to always exceed client expectations.  Each power forecast is uniquely developed to satisfy the distinct needs and risk tolerance of the client.  AWST forecasting services also include client-specific forecasting research projects.  In a constantly change industry, our primary goal is to help our clients meet today’s challenges before they become tomorrow’s problems.