Solutions

Forecasting & Grid Integration

As more and larger renewable energy projects come online, utilities, plant operators, and grid managers recognize the importance of managing the intermittent nature of their electrical generation and accurate and timely forecasts have become essential for managing energy sales and grid operations. Whether you are a grid operator, energy trader, or plant owner, accurately forecasting the distribution of renewable energy allows your organizations to rely on variable energy sources like wind and solar without impacting energy reliability.

The challenge of successfully integrating large quantities of renewable energy into the power grid has been a key focus area at AWS Truepower for over two decades. With our forecasting services, the risk and uncertainty of integrating wind energy is greatly reduced.

Through our grid integration support services, we can also help your organization assess the risks and impacts of wind and solar generation on the electricity grid, or help you evaluate your project’s potential revenues and curtailment risks.

Learn about what we do for:

Wind

forecasting_smForecasting

AWS Truepower provides highly reliable forecasts of wind speed, wind direction and wind plant power generation that are vital to plant operators, power marketers, utilities, Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs).

Predicting a renewable energy project’s output days, hours or minutes in advance provides significant cost savings for utility operations.

Forecasting the short-term energy production from a wind project can greatly reduce imbalance charges, minimize incremental reserve costs, facilitate plant dispatch scheduling, inform spot-market trading, and optimize plant maintenance.

Research is the core strength behind our forecasting services, but our success results from our goal to always exceed client expectations. Each power forecast is uniquely developed to satisfy the distinct needs and risk tolerance of the client.

Our services include:

  • Forecasting for grid operations. As the leading wind forecaster for grid operators in North America, we offer the high security and guaranteed reliability these customers demand. AWS Truepower employs sophisticated atmospheric models and adaptive statistical techniques that are customized for each client to produce the most accurate forecasts possible. The system predicts wind speed and direction at a wind project site, then converts that prediction into plant output estimates.
    • Forecasts can be provided from several minutes to several days, or even weeks in advance. Our web-based interface presents all the information the user needs in a clear and simple format. With a mouse click, our customers can access tabular or graphical forecasts and examine the recent record of forecast accuracy. We can also provide regular written reports of forecast performance.
  • Plant and fleet forecasts. For the highest accuracy, our forecasts can be custom-designed and use up-to-the-minute data from the plant. For less demanding applications, we use non-proprietary data to provide a low-cost, yet robust, solution.
  • Ramp forecasts. Our specialized ramp forecasts provide advance warning of such changes. Sudden increases or decreases in wind speed, commonly known as ramp events, have dramatic effects on wind farm energy production, and create challenges for grid stability and energy scheduling. Our unique ramp event forecasts use our suite of National Weather Prediction models and site data for accurate, timely prediction of wind events.
  • Seasonal forecasts. If you need insights into likely wind conditions and energy production up to 12 months in advance, our seasonal forecasting service is the solution.
  • Advanced research. AWS Truepower has an extensive forecasting research program that has been at the forefront of private and government sponsored research in wind forecasting and continuously advances power forecasting techniques. Advancements that prove beneficial are immediately implemented in our operational forecasting services.

Grid Integration Support

AWS Truepower is highly experienced in the analysis of the impacts of wind energy on utility systems and has led major wind integration studies around the world. We analyze the grid impacts of wind generation over various time periods and scales by using simulated wind generation data for existing or potential wind project sites, along with next-day hourly forecasts.

This data, which is verified and calibrated, enables us to provide clients with an accurate assessment of the impacts of wind generation on their utility system operations for a wide range of wind scenarios, helping to manage wind assets, plan for future expansion, and assess risks.

Our services include:

  • Grid integration studies for grid operators and power companies. We can help evaluate the current and future impact of wind energy on grid operations. Working with your team, we will develop realistic wind expansion scenarios and model the wind and generation variability on time scales as short as seconds. We can also assess the impacts of variable wind generation on such aspects as voltage stability, plant dispatch, fuel use, emissions, and reliability.
  • Wind generation data and scenario-building tools. We can provide synthesized wind resource and generation data for local, regional, and national studies, as well as software tools to allow you to build your own wind expansion and generation scenarios.
  • Transmission capacity and plant revenue and curtailment risks. Our power engineering team can help evaluate wind project sites by estimating available transmission capacity (including the effects of other renewable energy plants in the queue), forecasting revenues based on current and future locational marginal pricing (LMP), and assessing curtailment risk.

Solar

Forecasting

AWS Truepower provides highly reliable forecasts of solar irradiance, cloud movement and solar plant power generation that are vital to plant operators, power marketers, utilities, Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs). Our forecasts are based on numerical weather prediction models in addition to satellite data.

Predicting the output of renewable energy projects—days, hours or minutes in advance—provides significant cost savings for utility operations.

Forecasting the short-term energy production from a solar project can greatly reduce imbalance charges, minimize incremental reserve costs, facilitate plant dispatch scheduling, inform spot-market trading, and optimize plant maintenance.

Our services include:

  • Forecasting for grid operations. AWS Truepower employs sophisticated atmospheric models and adaptive statistical techniques that are customized for each project to produce the most accurate forecasts possible. The system predicts the solar irradiance at a solar project site, then converts the prediction into plant output estimates.
    • Forecasts can be provided from several minutes to several days, or even weeks in advance. Our web interface presents all the information the user needs in a clear and simple format. With a click of the mouse, our customers can access tabular or graphical forecasts and examine the recent record of forecast accuracy. We can also provide regular written reports of forecast performance.
  • Plant and fleet forecasts. For the highest accuracy, our forecasts can be custom-designed and use up-to-the-minute data from the plant. For less demanding applications, we use non-proprietary data to provide a low-cost, yet robust, solution.
  • Ramp forecasts. The passage of clouds through a project area can cause sudden increases or decreases in solar irradiance and power generation. These rapid changes in solar irradiance are commonly known as ramp events and have dramatic effects on on solar energy production.
    • AWS Truepower employs a suite of different numerical weather prediction models in the solar forecasting system. This allows us to generate multiple forecasts and asses the probability of rapid changes in the weather occurring. Advancements to the AWS Truepower solar forecasting system include the use of satellite data, rapidly updating weather models, and cloud advection algorithms. These advancements coupled with site data and our suite of numerical weather prediction models allow us to create unique ramp event forecasts that enable timely and accurate prediction of rapid changes in local weather conditions.
  • Advanced research. AWS Truepower has an extensive forecasting research program that has been at the forefront of private and government sponsored research in solar forecasting and continuously advances power forecasting techniques. Advancements that prove beneficial are immediately implemented in our operational forecasting services.

Grid Integration Support

AWS Truepower is highly experienced in the analysis of the impacts of solar energy on utility systems and has led major grid integration studies around the world. We analyze the grid impacts of solar generation over various time periods and scales by using simulated solar generation data for existing or potential project sites, along with next-day hourly forecasts.

This data, which is verified and calibrated, enables us to provide clients with an accurate assessment of the impacts of solar generation on their utility system operations for a wide range of solar scenarios, helping to manage solar assets, plan for future expansion, and assess risks.

  • Grid integration studies for grid operators and power companies. Evaluate the current and future impact of solar energy on grid operations. We can help evaluate the current and future impact of wind energy on grid operations. Working with your team, we will develop realistic wind expansion scenarios and model the wind and generation variability on time scales as short as seconds. We can also assess the impacts of variable wind generation on such aspects as voltage stability, plant dispatch, fuel use, emissions, and reliability.
  • Solar generation data. We can provide synthesized solar resource and generation data for local, regional, and national studies, as well as software tools to allow you to build your own wind expansion and generation scenarios.
  • Transmission capacity and plant revenue and curtailment risks. Our power engineering team can help evaluate solar project sites by estimating available transmission capacity (including the effects of other renewable energy plants in the queue), forecasting revenues based on current and future locational marginal pricing (LMP), and assessing curtailment risk.